Kazakhstan sets new daily infections record as WHO warns of “second peak”

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438 new coronavirus infections have been recorded in the last 24 hours in Kazakhstan, a new daily record for the country. The latest statistics have been published on the government’s official COVID-19 site Coronavirus2020.kz.

The new rise represents a 5.1% growth rate. The country’s chief medical officer has previously stated that if the infection rate rises above 7%, strict lockdown measures will once again be brought in, including the suspension of public transport and closure of shops and stores. The latest 24 hours has given rates of over 7% in Shymkent (11.3%), the Karaganda region (11.3%), the Jambyl region (17.5%) and the Western Kazakhstan region (9.2%). Local regions are relaxing and strengthening their own measures in accordance with regional infection rate figures.

The new record is especially concerning against the backdrop of a sustained surge in cases over the last week and a half which has coincided with moves to gradually reopen the economy. The previous daily record (403) was set just a few days ago, on 23 May. Until 16 May, new cases in Kazakhstan had not risen above 300 per day. In the last ten days, however, this figure has been exceeded six times.

From 20 May, shopping centres in Nur-Sultan have been allowed to reopen, provided stores ensure social distancing of two metres and allow in no more than five people at a time (state TV has reported that some stores are failing to enforce this rule, and on TV reports it is visible how queues of people are instead standing outside of shops, without any social distancing, waiting to be allowed in). As of yesterday, cafés and restaurants in the capital with a capacity of up to 50 people have also been allowed to resume operations. State TV has been busy reporting on establishments shut down for failing to comply with epidemiological regulations and showing ordinary Kazakhs failing to wear masks in public.

The rising statistics may be partly attributable to increased testing (in which Kazakhstan leads Central Asia and is on a par with much of Europe). But it is clear that the authorities are concerned that lockdown relaxation coupled with the public’s failure to observe existing regulations could lead to the situation getting out of control. “Lockdown measures in the cities are not being observed,” President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev took to Twitter to complain yesterday. “The government, together with regional and municipal akims, must rectify the situation. Wearing masks in public places and on public transport is obligatory. We must take decisive measures to protect public health,” Toqaev wrote.

Police measures against citizens breaking lockdown rules have been relaxed since the end of the state of emergency in Kazakhstan on 11 May, yet state media has been increasingly critical of widespread laxity on the part of the public. Yesterday it was reported that the authorities in Almaty will begin to fine members of the public for failing to wear face masks and maintain a social distance in public. According to the city’s chief medical officer, Zhandarbek Bekshin, the minimum fine for such an offence will be $33.50, and the maximum $3,350. Private businesses that fail to ensure that masks are worn on their premises will also be liable to fines, from $671 for small businesses, to $3,350 for large enterprises. The city’s deputy mayor has also said that, ultimately, only a vaccine will allow the total removal of all lockdown measures.

The rise in new cases in Kazakhstan comes as the head of the WHO’s team responsible for the containment and treatment of COVID-19, Michael Ryan, has warned that countries (like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan) where the number of coronavirus cases had been on the decline could now face a “second peak” of the first wave of the virus if they relax their lockdown measures too quickly.

A second wave, Ryan stressed, is something that could come several months down the line, while we are still yet to emerge from the first wave, and governments need to be extremely careful in their lockdown exit strategies to keep the first wave under control.

To date, Kazakhstan has reported 8,969 cases of COVID-19 and 35 deaths.