China has overtaken Russia to become Tajikistan’s largest trading partner for the first time, ending Moscow’s decades-long dominance in the country’s foreign trade. The news was reported by Asia-Plus, citing the Agency on Statistics under the President of Tajikistan.
In the first five months of 2025, trade between Tajikistan and China reached $964 million, marking a 31 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024. Tajik exports to China totaled more than $177 million, while imports from China accounted for approximately $787 million. Trade with China made up 24.8 percent of Tajikistan’s total foreign trade, narrowly surpassing Russia’s share of 23.2 percent.
Tajik-Russian trade for the same period totaled about $900 million. Of this, $858 million was made up of Russian exports to Tajikistan, while Tajik exports to Russia reached only $42 million. Still, trade with Russia grew by 9.3 percent year-on-year.
Asia-Plus notes that China had already overtaken Russia in terms of investment volume back in 2017. By early 2025, total Chinese investment in Tajikistan amounted to $5.1 billion, while Russian investments stood at approximately $2 billion. Roughly 70 percent of China’s contributions are direct investments.
Chinese companies are active across numerous sectors in Tajikistan, including energy, infrastructure, construction, telecommunications, mining, and building materials manufacturing. Beijing has also funded the construction of roads, tunnels, and power lines, and several Chinese-backed firms are among the top taxpayers in the country.
China is also Tajikistan’s largest external creditor. As of early 2025, Tajikistan’s debt to China was approximately $1 billion — about one-third of its total external debt.
In the 1990s, following Tajikistan’s independence, Uzbekistan was its main trade partner. In 1995, bilateral trade with Uzbekistan reached $250 million, twice the combined total with all other CIS countries. However, worsening relations led to a decline in trade, which dropped to just $13 million by 2014. Since President Shavkat Mirziyoyev came to power in Uzbekistan, relations have improved, and bilateral trade has grown. In the first five months of 2025 alone, Tajik-Uzbek trade reached $238 million.
