Photo: spot.uz
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has attributed the widening fluctuations between the soum and the U.S. dollar to increased exchange rate flexibility. This, officials say, should allow for more accurate forecasting of the foreign exchange rate, Spot.uz quoted Central Bank chairman Timur Ishmetov as saying.
Ishmetov noted that the policy governing the exchange rate has recently changed.
“Because of low volatility over many years, market participants—especially banks and businesses—came to expect the dollar rate to rise every year, or only to increase, even when it temporarily declined,” he explained.
According to official data, in the first eight months of this year, the Uzbek soum strengthened against the dollar by 3.39 percent, or 438 soums.
Gazeta.uz reported that daily fluctuations widened beginning in April. In early 2025, the exchange rate shifted by an average of 12.2 soums per day, while in the second quarter it moved by 47.5 soums.
Experts point to both domestic and external drivers of this trend. Farrukh Khodjaev, director of Kap Depo, described the soum’s strengthening as a “short-term correction.” In his view, under current conditions private investors would do better to buy dollars rather than sell them.
Exporters have also voiced concern, warning that rising costs denominated in foreign currency, coupled with a weaker dollar rate, are undermining competitiveness. Business leaders have urged the Central Bank to weaken the soum and let the dollar rise. Davron Vakhabov, head of Uzbekistan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the preferred rate for businesses would be in the range of 16,000–17,000 soums per U.S. dollar. At present, the rate is below 12,500.
In June, the International Monetary Fund advised the Central Bank of Uzbekistan to allow greater flexibility in the exchange rate and to tolerate wider fluctuations. According to IMF analysts, such an approach would strengthen protection against external risks, improve the transmission of monetary policy, and prevent entrenched expectations of a continually weakening national currency.
