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Experts from the International Monetary Fund have recommended that Uzbekistan reduce government spending, despite a positive outlook for increased budget revenues driven by economic activity and rising global gold prices. The recommendation is outlined in a report by an IMF mission that visited Tashkent in the second half of November.
According to analysts, the Uzbek government plans to keep the consolidated budget deficit at 3% in 2026. Additional revenue this year — due largely to exports of non-monetary gold, which has climbed in price — has created room for higher spending. But the IMF stresses that such initiatives must be restrained going forward to curb inflationary pressure, avoid an undesirable strengthening of the real exchange rate, and prevent the need for abrupt fiscal adjustments in the event of a downturn in global precious-metal prices.
The Fund’s staff also advises Uzbekistan to increase the share of tax revenues in GDP. To achieve this, they recommend reforms such as limiting new tax exemptions and improving the quality of fiscal oversight.
The Central Bank is urged to maintain a tight monetary policy until inflation begins moving steadily toward its target, and to continue measures that increase exchange-rate flexibility. Uzbekistan is also encouraged to advance privatization and restructuring of state-owned enterprises, strengthen market competition, and improve the business environment.
Overall, IMF experts note that Uzbekistan’s economic performance remains strong. Real GDP grew 7.6% year-on-year in January–September. Despite rising demand, inflation fell to 7.8%.
“The current-account deficit narrowed significantly in the first half of the year thanks to high gold prices, strong non-gold export performance, and large remittance inflows,” the report says.
Analysts forecast continued positive momentum. They expect real GDP growth to exceed 7% in 2025 and remain around 6% the following year, supported by consumption and investment. Inflation, however, is projected to reach the Central Bank’s 5% target only by late 2027.
Risks remain, primarily from overspending driven by expectations of high revenues and from the expansion of directed and preferential lending programs. External risks stem from global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and commodity-price volatility, the IMF concludes.
